SCC Preview: Sadler a sleeper for Saturday night

Sprint Cup Series drivers constantly contend that the Daytona International Speedway they see in February is a different track than the one they face in Florida's torrid July heat and humidity. During the Fourth of July weekend, the 2.5-mile track is much slicker, it's tougher to negotiate and tougher for the drivers to handle their cars, and the statistics confirm the drivers' statements.

Rarely does a driver who performs well in the season opening Daytona 500 in February back it up in July. None of the winners in the past four Daytona 500s have visited victory lane in July of those four years.

Ryan Newman won the 2008 Daytona 500, but, he has yet to salvage a top-10 at the Coke Zero 400 in the past four years. His best July finish between 2005 and 2008 was 11th in 2006. Kevin Harvick was victorious in the 2007 Daytona 500, but his best finish in the July race in the past four years has been ninth.

Surprisingly, it's the same story for three-time series champion Jimmie Johnson. The Hendrick Motorsports driver won the 2006 Daytona 500, but is still winless in July since beginning his Cup career in 2002. During the past four July races, Johnson has collected two top-10s with a sixth in 2005 being his best. Jamie McMurray won the 2007 July race and recorded top-10s in 2005 and 2006. However, he has yet to produce a top-10 in the Daytona 500. In fact, his best finish in the season opener was 26th in 2008. All of his other Daytona 500 finishes have been 31st or worse.

Points leader Tony Stewart is one of the exceptions to the apparent norm. He has performed well in both events. He posted three top-10s, including two top-5s, in the past four Daytona 500s, and he has won two of the last four July races. Matt Kenseth also is a victory contender in both events. The Wisconsin native produced top-10s in the past four Coke Zero 400s before claiming his first-ever Daytona 500 victory in this year's rain-shortened race. Kenseth also is the best-performing driver in restrictor-plate races this year, having accumulated the most points (307) in those events.

The Busch brothers also perform well in both Daytona events. Kurt Busch provided then Penske Racing teammate Newman with the push he needed to win the 2008 Daytona 500, settling for a runner-up. Busch placed 10th in this year's "Great American Race." He also produced three top-5s in the past four July races. He finished third twice and fourth last July. He is second to Kenseth in the amount of points earned in restrictor-plate events this season with 289. Kyle Busch, who's seven years younger than his brother, is the defending Coke Zero 400 Champion. The victory came on the heels of two runner-ups. He also claimed a fourth in the 2008 Daytona 500.

Restrictor-plate races by nature are unpredictable, and it would be nice to think the Daytona 500 would give us some valuable insight into what's going to happen Saturday night. Unfortunately, the record book clearly indicates success in February doesn't usually translate to July.

Note: The top-four finishers last July at Daytona -- Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Kenseth, and Kurt Busch -- all had top-10s the year before. Another driver to finish top 10 in the past two July races is a guy on a roll lately, Kasey Kahne.

Big bucks (SCC value 21.0 and up)

Stewart (24.2) is going to be a strong pick again this week. If you have him, stick with him. It will be difficult, at his current value, to find a way to "buy" Stewart, but it's worth a thought because he's usually very strong in the summer months. With a slick track and handling coming into more play, I like Edwards (22.1), who loves a slippery track, and Kenseth (21.3) along with teammate Greg Biffle (21.9). Another guy who will drive the wheels off a "loose" race car is Kyle Busch (21.9).

Serious coin (SCC value 18.0 to 21.0)

Kahne (20.9) is my top pick in this group. He's been running well lately. I also like Brian Vickers (19.3) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (18.6). This might be the week to take a shot with Junior given past success at Daytona and a price that is cap friendly. McMurray (18.1) won this race a couple of years ago, and again, with this race stressing handling like you would have on a 1.5-mile track, previous experience plays to the strength of Roush Fenway Racing. Clint Bowyer (20.7) might be interesting to look at as well. His average finish at Daytona is 11.1 and he has top-10s in the past two Daytona starts, including a ninth place finish a year ago. Brad Keselowski (18.0), the Talladega winner, is also in this group. If you already have Juan Pablo Montoya (21.0), you might want to think about holding on to him.

Budget boys (SCC value 13.0 to 18.0)

Once again, if you can figure out the best combination, the budget boys are going to be a big help this week. Elliott Sadler (17.5) seems to run well at Daytona. I also like Martin Truex Jr. (17.4) and Harvick (17.1). Given what happened back at this year's 500, Reed Sorenson (17.0) and A.J. Allmendinger (15.8) need some thought. Sam Hornish Jr. (16.2) has been running better lately, and is still cap friendly. The toughest guy to judge here may be Joey Logano (17.6). Yes, he's coming off a win, but he easily could have finished 20th last week at New Hampshire. Then again, he's been running stronger the past couple of months. A couple of other guys to think about in this category: David Ragan (15.5), who finished fifth in this race a year ago but hasn't really gotten it together yet in 2009, and Bobby Labonte (16.0).

Debit … not credit

Restrictor-plate races are just giant crapshoots, so no one can be completely ruled out. However, among all the drivers with a value of 21.0 or greater, the one driver I never have a good feel for at Daytona is Denny Hamlin (22.1). Plus, there are too many drivers below him I would rank better, so there is no need to go to add him. In the middle group, Jeff Burton scares me. It wouldn't be a shocker if he had a good run at Daytona, but he has only one top-10 in the past seven races, and his average finish over the past three events is 30.3. Michael Waltrip (15.5), a former Daytona winner, will get some serious thought from some corners, but since winning two Daytona races in a row, he has done nothing. Yes, he did finish seventh in February, but that was a fluke because of the rain.

Guru Garrow's gang

I'm going to stand pat with the team I had at New Hampshire until we talk to the crew chiefs on race day at Daytona. I feel like Stewart, Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, Truex and Hornish just missed a big score last Sunday. I can see the first four doing well Saturday night. Hornish is a question mark, and there are a number of drivers in his price range I could sub him for, so I'm keeping an eye on that.

Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.